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Q. Are there any companies in the U.S. that are both
profitable and loved by their customers?
Well, lots of smallish mail order companies I guess. On a more
significant level, there's Southwest Airlines, whose book value
last time I looked exceeded that of American, United, and Delta
Airlines - the three largest U.S. carriers - combined.
Southwest flies only 737s, mostly on short routes. There's no assigned
seating, and no frills at all. It's cheap and dependable. The CEO,
who is about to retire, is a loveable, motorcycle-riding, cigarette-smoking
old varmint, and part of the outfit's success has to do with his
charisma. Customers love Southwest. And it's by no means a niche
player. It serves very large markets: Mr. and Mrs. America, and
also the younger or more downmarket traveling salesperson.
Q. Do you fly Southwest?
A. God no, only when I have to. It's a zoo. But they really do
what they do very well, they know who they are, and they don't compromise.
Q. Anyone else?
A. MBNA, the giant credit card company. They have a total commitment
to customer service. Every employee's business card bears the title
"Customer Advocate." Paychecks are delivered in an envelope
that says "Brought to you by the customer." Senior management
has to spend time on the phones, actually working in customer service.
I've now confined my credit card use to MBNA cards, because it's
such a hassle dealing with other card issuers if anything goes wrong.
Q. OK, here comes the big question: Whither the Internet?
A. Well, any fool could have seen that the bubble would burst.
Typical of burst bubbles, the Internet now seems to be in a bit
of bad repute. Or at least what we've been calling e-Commerce is.
I got to know Jay Walker, the impresario of Priceline, a bit last
year when he was everyone's hero. He's now the poster boy for dot-com
failure. Jay was neither as brilliant as he was given credit for
(the Harvard Business Review was doing monthly panegyrics on him!),
nor as dumb as he's accused of being now. The U.S. direct marketing
trade press has been very critical, dredging up failures from his
past. Well, he's an entrepreneur, and sometimes he and other people
get hurt. That's life in post-industrial capitalism.
Three things I think are clear: The Internet is being increasingly
integrated with other modes and channels. E-mail has great potential
as a direct marketing tool. And the ultimate impact of the Internet
will be in Stage 3
Q. What's Stage 3?
A. Stage 1 was the hyper-excitement of the late 1990s. Stage 2
is the absorption of the Internet into everyday life, and that's
taking place right now. Stage 3 will be the increasing invisibility
of the Internet as it becomes embedded in other things.
Q. The smart doorknob idea?
A. Carrying it to an extreme, yes. That's the MIT Media Lab program,
"Things That Think."
The great potential of the Internet is as an enabling technology,
allowing lots of other things to happen. The great enabling technology
of the 20th Century was electricity, which allowed us to turn night
into day, among other radical things. The Internet has the same
potential.
It's useful, I think, to compare electricity with computers and
the Internet. There's a very interesting book called "When
Old Technologies Were New," by Carolyn Marvin, a professor
at the University of Pennsylvania. A hundred years ago, electricity
was sort of a show-off thing, used for tricks and stunts, much like
Stage 1 of the Internet. Experts were called "electricians"
(the word we now use for the guy who fixes the toaster!) and thought
they were superior to other folks. Again, echoes of Internet, Stage
1.
The Sears catalog in 1908 featured a "home motor" which
you would crank up, and then (theoretically) plug appliances into.
But of course electricity didn't really take over until the "home
motor" became an invisible thing inside the appliance. That's
what's beginning to happen right now in Stage 2, and will culminate
with Stage 3.
Q. Will the Internet become completely invisible?
A. No, I think it will follow the trajectory of other technologies.
Electricity is invisible, but TV - enabled by electricity - is right
in your face. In a sense, electricity split into two parts: an enabler
and the media it enabled. The Internet will end up with a similar
split, certainly if it remains an information and communications
medium. So you would still search the Internet for weather information,
let's say, but in its invisible guise it will be the agent in your
refrigerator that calls the repairperson for you. The first use
is analogous to TV, the second analogous to electricity.
The computer itself, though, is going in the direction of invisibility.
I don't think it will split. As everyone knows, the personal computer
is a clumsy, early-stage interface, analogous to the crank you had
to use with the original automobiles. As Nicholas Negroponte, the
MIT Internet guru, says, the secret to interface design is to make
it go away. The personal computer is an interface, and it will go
away.
Think of the computer's progression through the years. In 1946,
you needed a building to house a computer. Personal computers were
first commercialized about 20 years ago. They were clunky things.
Now there are ever-smaller laptops, and hand-held devices. With
biotech and computer science coming together over the next few years,
we will end up with literally invisible computers.
Q. Dare we ask
will this be good or bad?
A. Oh yeah, I can answer that one for sure. It'll be both. That's
always the way with technology.
Q. What are you keeping your eye on, technologically?
A. Everyone's talking about broadband. I don't see much of it yet.
But certainly, when and if it comes, it will change the Internet
significantly. And voice recognition, if it ever gets really good,
will also change everything.
Q. You started out as a direct mail guy. What are you now?
A. Well, I'm still a direct mail guy, and certainly a direct marketing
guy, and I guess for sure a marketing guy, and then, in the lay
sense, a technology guy. You have to pay lots of attention to technology,
because that's driving everything these days, whether the economic
times are good or bad. And of course I try to be a thoughtful guy.
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